Oil demand growth to continue, no peak in sight, OPEC Secretary General says June 11, 2025
- Summary
- OPEC forecasts 24% rise in energy needs by 2050
- OPEC warns of risks from inadequate investment in oil and gas
- OPEC secretary general criticizes net-zero targets as ‘unrealistic’
CALGARY, June 10 (Reuters) – Oil demand growth will remain robust over the next two and a half decades as the world population grows, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said on Tuesday.
The organization expects a 24% increase in the world’s energy needs between now and 2050, with oil demand surpassing 120 million barrels per day over that time period.
That estimate is in line with the group’s 2024 World Oil Outlook.
“There is no peak in oil demand on the horizon,” Al Ghais said, speaking at the Global Energy Show in Calgary, Alberta.
Nearly one fifth of world total crude consumption
He said OPEC admired what Canada’s oil industry has done to increase its oil output in recent years.
Canada achieved record oil production in 2024, as the completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion boosted the ability of oil companies to get their product to market.
Danielle Smith, premier of Canada’s main oil-producing province of Alberta, has spoken of her desire to double the province’s oil and gas output by 2050.
Al Ghais said OPEC has been consistent in warning of the dangers of inadequate global investment in oil and gas, given its forecast for demand growth.
He said failing to invest enough capital to meet projected demand growth risks undermining energy security and causing volatility for both producers and consumers.
He also said, OPEC believes there is a need for US$17.4 trillion in capital investment in the global energy sector over the next 25 years.
OPEC+ is unwinding its output cuts at a faster pace than originally anticipated, lifting production by 411,000 barrels per day for May, June and July.
These increases, along with concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war will weaken the global economy, have pressured oil prices in recent months.
Global Brent futures settled at $66.87 a barrel on Tuesday.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Tuesday said it expected Brent oil prices to fall near $60 a barrel by the end of the year and average $59 a barrel next year, hitting U.S. oil production.
Al Ghais on Tuesday also said OPEC welcomed recent pushback against what he referred to as unrealistic climate goals that are overly focused on meeting specific deadlines. He said there is a need for countries to reduce emissions but stressed, that should not mean picking and choosing between energy sources.
Instead governments and companies should be looking for ways to reduce emissions from oil and gas through technologies such as carbon capture and storage.
e markets volatile as Israel-Iran conflict escalates
- Summary
- Brent, WTI surged over $4 at open before trimming gains
- Iranian missiles strike Israel’s Tel Aviv and Haifa on Monday
- Trump says he hopes Israel and Iran can reach a ceasefire
NEW DELHI, June 16 (Reuters) – Oil prices were volatile on Monday, after surging 7% on Friday, as renewed strikes by Israel and Iran over the weekend increased concerns that the battle could widen across the region and significantly disrupt oil exports from the Middle East.
Brent crude futures were up 6 cents, or 0.08%, to $74.29 a barrel by 0742 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 21 cents or 0.29%, to $73.19. They had surged more than $4 a barrel earlier in the session and also fell into negative territory briefly.
Both benchmarks settled 7% higher on Friday, having jumped more than 13% during the session to their highest levels since January.
Iranian missiles struck Israel’s Tel Aviv and the port city of Haifa on Monday, destroying homes and fuelling concerns among world leaders at this week’s G7 meeting that the battle between the two enemies could lead to a broader regional conflict.
An exchange of strikes between Israel and Iran on Sunday resulted in civilian casualties, with both militaries urging civilians on the opposing side to take precautions against further strikes.
The latest developments have stoked concerns about disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping passage.
About a fifth of the world’s total oil consumption, or some 18 to 19 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, condensate and fuel, passes through the strait.
“Buying was driven by the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, with no resolution in sight,” said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities.
“But as seen last Friday, some selling emerged on concerns of overreaction,” he said.
STRAIT OF HORMUZ IN FOCUS
While markets are watching for potential disruptions to Iranian oil production due to Israel’s strikes on energy facilities, heightened fears over a Strait of Hormuz blockade could sharply lift prices, Tazawa added.
Iran, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), currently produces around 3.3 million bpd and exports more than 2 million bpd of oil and fuel.
The spare capacity of OPEC and its allies, including Russia, to pump more oil to offset any disruption is roughly equivalent to Iran’s output, according to analysts and OPEC watchers.
“If Iranian crude exports are disrupted, Chinese refiners, the sole buyers of Iranian barrels, would need to seek alternative grades from other Middle Eastern countries and Russian crudes,” wrote Richard Joswick, head of near-term oil analysis at S&P Global Commodity Insights.
“This could also boost freight rates and tanker insurance premiums, narrow the Brent-Dubai spread, and hurt refinery margins, particularly in Asia,” Mr. Joswick added.
China’s crude oil throughput declined by 1.8% in May from a year earlier to the lowest level since August, official data showed on Monday, as maintenance at both state-owned and independent refineries curbed operations.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he hopes Israel and Iran can broker a ceasefire, but added that sometimes countries have to fight it out first.
Trump said the U.S. would continue to support Israel.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he hoped a meeting of the Group of Seven leaders convening in Canada on Sunday would reach an agreement to help resolve the conflict and keep it from escalating.
Meanwhile, Iran has told mediators Qatar and Oman that it is not open to negotiating a ceasefire while under Israeli attack, an official briefed on the communications told Reporters on Sunday.
